By-Election Results: Lessons for the Radical Left
The six Solidarity-People Before Profit TDs - Gino Kenny, Richard Boyd Barrett, Ruth Coppinger, Mick Barry, Paul Murphy, and Bríd Smith. Photo from People Before Profit.
RISE activist Dave Murphy discusses the results of the recent by-elections and their significance for the Radical Left.
The results of the recent four by-elections pose serious challenges for the socialist left. Despite the low-turnout and the nature of by-elections themselves, the results demonstrate that with a General Election just months away, the socialist left is facing the potential for a significant electoral setback.
The elections were triggered by the election of four former TDs - Frances Fitzgerald (FG - Dublin Mid-West), Billy Kelleher (FF - Cork North Central), Clare Daly (I4C - Dublin Fingal), Mick Wallace (I4C - Wexford) - to the European Parliament in May's elections.
Fianna Fáil won two seats as was expected while the Greens candidate Joe O Brien was elected in Fingal, and Sinn Féin unexpectedly took victory in Dublin Mid-West on the back of a strong mobilisation of their working class base.
Solidarity-People Before Profit candidates ran good campaigns in Dublin Mid-West and Cork North Central but only received 5.1% for Kellie Sweeney and 4.4% for Councillor Fiona Ryan.
With major crises in housing, rising climate change concerns, a health system on the brink of collapse and an aloof government the radical left should have been able to perform better especially considering two of the constituencies have sitting socialist TDs (Cork North Central and Dublin Mid-West).
The by-election results in many ways echoed the Local and European elections held last May. With less than five months until the General Election what are the lessons to be taken on board?
Climate Crisis benefitting the Greens
The dramatic shift in attitudes on climate change over the last couple of years found its first electoral expression in May’s Local and European elections which saw the Greens pick up 49 council seats, 2 MEP positions and narrowly miss-out elsewhere.
Joe O’Brien’s clear cut victory in Fingal, and the strong performance of ex-Green TD Paul Gogarty who traded on his ‘climate credentials’ shows that the ‘green wave’ has maintained its momentum and is likely to continue into the General Election. The party is, reportedly, hoping to win 12 seats. Most of these seats are expected to come in Dublin, with seats currently held by Left TDs seen as targets.
The growth of environmental consciousness is a positive development. Globally, the mass movement for climate action has seen millions of young people take to the streets, the emergence of Extinction Rebellion and the climate strikes have put climate change centre stage politically. This is demonstrated by the popularity of the Green New Deal in the U.S and Corbyn’s Green Industrial Revolution plans in Britain.
In Ireland, currently the Greens are overwhelmingly the beneficiaries from this change. The simplicity of their ’Want Green, Vote Green’ slogan appeals to people who are sick of the inaction of successive Irish governments. While it is easy to characterise their success as ‘a middle class protest vote’, the local elections showed that they can garner some support in working class areas and especially from young people. The support among young people is reflected in the surge in membership of the party which has increased by over 60% in the last year.
There is a fundamental contradiction facing the Greens in that their timid programme for environmental change isn’t enough to tackle climate chaos, it is far behind what science says is required and more importantly is far behind the demands of the movements and people who have mobilised.
While Saoirse McHugh and others on the left of the Green Party correctly call out capitalism as the root of both climate change and inequality, the Green Party policy of neo-liberal solutions are off-putting for wide sections of the working class who see it as a way to hit already struggling people with new carbon taxes while the big polluters escape scot free. This has led to an important minority of people being open to the ideas of climate change conspiracy theorists or under-estimating the crisis.
The Left need to challenge in this space with an eco-socialist programme that not only puts forward measures to tackle climate chaos which can win broad support, but also points a way forward to end the housing and health crises, poverty and inequality. That is why RISE has brought the idea of a Green New Deal with socialist policies to the centre of our argumentation.
Tackle the far-right & racists
While many were amused to see far-right conspiracy theorist Gemma O’Doherty lose her deposit again, the fact remains that she still managed to win over 1,000 votes.
Right-wing conservative commentator John McGuirk tweeted on O’Doherty’s result “4.1% of the vote. Which makes you wonder what a more appealing candidate with a more refined version of the message might achieve.”
The far-right currently feel emboldened. They have come to prominence in protests against direct provision centres in rural areas over the last number of months, where they in whipping up racism and fear around direct provision centres, resulting in what they would view as a number of ‘victories’. They have also been somewhat successful in whipping up anti-immigrant sentiment around the issue of housing.
The Left needs to tackle this problem head on. If a ‘more appealing candidate emerge[d]’, far-right parties, as has been seen in other European countries, could potentially gain a foothold. Even should they not become a force, the effect of the anti-immigrant sentiment they can whip up will result in more open racism in society and potentially more violence towards migrants.
Already we can see the effect of this politically – not only with Noel Grealish’s remarks. In the by-elections, Fine Gael candidate Verona Murphy openly traded on racist attacks which played to this sentiment. Though Fine Gael went on to try to distance themselves from her comments, they will cynically try to appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment if they feel that they can benefit from a right-wing vote. Seeking to appeal to this right-wing vote the Taoiseach has made comments in relation to asylum seekers from Albania and Georgia. A clear anti-racist message is needed to oppose these divide and rule tactics of the establishment and far-right.
Sinn Féin and the Working Class
The surprise victory of Mark Ward for Sinn Féin in Dublin Mid-West and their strong showing in Cork North Central should put paid to any illusions among those on the radical left that the party has already definitively lost its working class base and roots.
Even with a very low turnout, in two of the by-election constituencies where they are an established force they were able to mobilise a working class vote resulting in returns which exceeded all recent opinion polls.
Comparing these results with the recent local elections when both Sinn Féin and the socialist left suffered the effects of a low turn-out in work-class estates should ring alarm bells. In the by-elections Sinn Féin could bring out support, however despite getting respectable results Solidarity – People Before Profit were knocked back and the frailness of support was exposed.
The reality is that for many working class people Sinn Féin are seen as an alternative to the main establishment parties despite their openness to coalition and betrayals on housing policy in the local councils.
How the Left takes up Sinn Féin will therefore be a key tactical question in the General Election. With the on-going and deepening housing crisis and in the absence of a strong protest movement, people may view Sinn Féin as the main alternative to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The Left should place demands on Sinn Féin that will appeal to their working class base who want to see radical change such as - ruling out coalition with right-wing parties, committing to massive investment in public housing, and making the big polluters pay for the necessary green transformation of our economy.
Radical left seats can still be saved
There is a real prospect of the socialist Left being significantly reduced in the General Election between being squeezed by Sinn Féin in working class communities and losing support in some constituencies to the Greens.
However, that is not preordained. The grassroots housing protest on Thursday 5 December had the flavour of the early stages of the water charges and may indicate that the anger at the worsening housing crisis is beginning to overflow. The fears of many that this protest would be hijacked by the far-right did not materialise and radical left TDs were warmly welcomed on the protest. RISE’s Paul Murphy TD was asked by the organisers to read the demands in the Dáil. This could become the start of a mass movement on housing, which would again politicise and raise the sights of working class people. If an active movement is developed, it is likely that the electoral fortunes of the radical left, those who emphasise the importance of people-power movements from below, will be raised.
The fact that with a concerted campaign Sinn Féin could mobilise a relatively high turnout in working class areas of North Clondalkin also contains a lesson for the Left. With clear messaging about the importance of voting for left candidates and a consistent strategy to mobilise that vote, people can be mobilised to vote.
A national strategy is also needed to carve out space for a principled left position, which opposes coalition with the establishment parties and argues for a left government with socialist policies. A unified presentation of that position from the anti-coalition and fighting Left could have an impact in cutting across the perception of a fragmented and divided left. It could also draw attention to the many victories over the course of the last years, driven by movements from below and given effective voice to in the Dáil by the radical left, including the anti-water charges movement, the movement for abortion rights and the struggle for marriage equality.
A common slate across the anti-coalition Left, combined with agreement to avoid contesting candidatures where possible, and transfer pacts where not, could launch a left programme and intervene with national media events between now and the election.
When the 2008 financial crash hit the socialist left had no elected representatives on a national level. This hindered the ability of the left to influence events and mobilise people. It was only after the 2011 General Election that the left could use the Dail as a platform to assist in mobilising anti-austerity campaigns such as the Household Tax campaign and water charges. With a new crash on the horizon we need to avoid facing a similar situation.